New theory
I was pleased to see gold trading at 1007 this morning as i woke. I think it has been building a base at 1000 and refuses to stay below that mark for any length of time. With gold appreciating the outlook for Oromin gets brighter and brighter. The larger gold stocks are not as highly leveraged to the price of gold as is Oromin. The NAV and IRR of the sabodala project improve greatly with any increase in gold over 900/oz. Notwithstanding any benefit from the current work being done on Sabodala to increase the economics from within. The combination of the price of gold going up and work being done on the ground, the project economics look a lot better than they did at the time of the Pre feas release. I understand it had a time constraint as it was tied to the application for a mining liscence. The application has been filed and a team will be going to the property to follow up on the application process. The general public and media are starting to look around for highly leveraged gold plays and when they find it in combination with an appreciating gold price we will make our money back and then some.
The stock depth is looking a lot better, i was told the Europe trip was a success. Looking at the trades there are 2 new buyers and i think they are european. Toll cross has been doing some crossing trades for some size. The depth is looking better than is has ever. There are some large bids that are in place and i think the sentiment is begining to turn.
One interesting point I made in a comment last week was the fact that someone is accumulating large blocks of MDL on the TSX. So far 30 million shares have changed hands this month with GMP and Toll cross being the big buyers, Credit Suisse is 3rd and has also begun accumulating oromin shares, and thanks to Muttley adding the fact that 30 or so million shares traded onthe ASX thats 60 million shares in a month.. interesting
There is a lot of speculation on the street about how the deal will go down. The truth is no one knows .. there are as i see it 4 players (maybe more) Oromin MDL Iamgold and Randgold. With mdl having the plant in place it makes sense to have mdl included in the deal. Will mdl be taken out first?.. i guess it depends who is taking up the shares in mdl..Iamgolds stake in Oromin will also play a role. They already have a head start so it looks like they are the front runner. But what if Oromin was to make a run at MDL! The combined company would have almost 7 million ounces and be in production with probably 4 million upgraded ounces. I have always said that Oromins property was a 10 million ouncer add mdl’s 3.5 and some blue sky we are at 13 – 15 million ounces .. all of a sudden Oromin is a significant mid tier producer going into the biggest gold rally of the last 25 years!..
Oromin and MDL have always had a good relationship..and remembering back to the merger mania of the 80’s the project synergy is there.. we have the oxides and the blue sky ounces on our property and MDl have the mill.. they need oxides and we need a mill ..
i see some pretty exciting times ahead with some big numbers being thrown around!
how does OLE buy MDL, would MDL accept the $15 million in cash OLE has and an “I owe you” for the rest of the $485 million?
or do we issue 700 million shares at 70 cents?
Another possibility is a merger btw MDL & OJVC
another 1.8 million shares of MDL traded in canada today.. GMP again..someone is accumulating .. but why use the tsx market?.. must be a NA buyer?
MDL holders in Aus stumped up $1.50 over 3 years ago….then it was $1.20 to Europe and Nth America, then $0.70 to Canadian groups….
To take out MDL, it will need cash, I dont think people want one poorly performed stock for anothe rnad both groups have proved they can find and do some sort of development and thats where their expertise ends.
I still think the smartest bet is IAMGOLD take out MDL then tie up Oromin. If they can find a buyer for the mineral sands it will be a bonus for them….or they might even team up with a partner and develop it themselves. I heard the ex MDL boss from Senegal is already working on the quiet for IAMGOLD so thats got to be a reasonable pointer.
The oulier here will be Bassari, still the best potential in the area for some monsters….They are not going to let it go for under $1.50 a share this year and $2.00 next year….before they even get drill results….thats a high degree of confidence and they have a strong loyal shareholder base including myself with a large position that grows…..The reason I have them as an outlier is Randgold could (should) take them out for about $200M, take out MDL and then strangle out IAMGOLD and Oromin….they are ruthless enough and have the balls to make such a play…..
Enjoy the speculation all !!!!!!
How would Oromin “buy” MDL? We’d have to raise vast sums of money right? Nearly 500MM or so? I believe we had less then 20MM last I saw.
I’m pretty new to exploration companies and would appreciate someone laying out the different possibilities with some rough guess as to how it would go.
Thanks,
Kwhurs01
Any comments on what might happen with Santa Rosa? Also, how would Oromin buy MDL?
MDL News…
Mineral Deposits’ first gold hit from regional program
by Peter Gonnella
West Africa gold producer Mineral Deposits (ASX: MDL) has announced encouraging initial results from reconnaissance exploration work being carried out around its Sabodala mine in Senegal.
Exploration of its 1,600 sq km regional joint ventured groundholdings was largely suspended over the past two years while the company’s resources were dedicated to drilling out of the Sabodala orebody and construction of the new operation.
With Sabodala successfully commissioned and having produced 110,000 ounces of gold to date, Mineral Deposits embarked on a regional trenching and drilling program, which it has committed $10 million to in the first year.
Until very recently, essentially no modern exploration had been undertaken across its land package. According to the Melbourne-headquartered miner, given the prospective geology, it has enormous potential to host large deposits as evidenced by the rapid progress of the area around Sabodala, which within a few short years has already grown to a 10 million ounce field.
Preliminary results from the recently commenced trenching work included an interval of 78 metres grading 1.7 g/t gold including 10m at 10.8 g/t (no cut-off grade) at the Gold Creek prospect in the Sounkounkou permit.
Mineral Deposits perceived the early result as significant as it suggests a wide zone of primary gold mineralisation underneath complex and transported overburden materials. Further work is in progress to fully explore this area.
Sabodala, which poured first gold in March 2009, is located 650 km east of the capital of Senegal, Dakar, within the West African Birimian geological belt and about 90 km from major gold mines and discoveries in Mali.
The region has only recently been opened for mining and exploration and is already emerging as a significant new gold province, with further recent discoveries having been made by Oromin Explorations and Randgold.
For the record, Oromin will NOT buy MDL and MDL will NOT buy OLE. I can see a major or mid tier player buying both, but either one buying the other does not make sense…
I agree goldn1, MDL and OLE won’t buy each other. A bigger player needs to come along. In the interim, we need to find more gold…a lot more gold!
I was rereading this post when I was hit with something. Caliche mentioned that as gold forms a base above 1000 that oromin financials look better. I know we talked a lot about the NPV’s in the past month, but wanted to confirm something. We had a negative NPV with gold at 850 / oz but a positive at 950 / oz right? I believe the swing was -54MM to 54MM respectively. Can we extrapilate oromin’s NPV based on a 1000 / oz price. If we assumed its linear it’d be about 100MM right?
Can we do that? Does that even matter?
kwhurs01
i was thinking about the merger/buyout question today.. oromin may not have to come up with the cash .. the saudi partner has always said it would finance the decision to go into production.. what if they bought out MDL through the OJVC?.. i will have to look at the corporate structure again…
just a thought for friday night..
How would something like that impact Oromin? It would dullute our share of OJVG right? Now we have 43.5% what would we be down to?
Have you guys been through anything like that?
kwhurs01
i think some kind of combination will benefit both .. with an expanded plant and higher grades we could be producing 500K oz/yr
tough to say .. without seeing the whole report..but the pivot point is say 900 gold .. and by simple math every 100 rise in gold is 108 million to the project..so at 1040 gold my simple math says $151,200,000.. we are definitley undervalued here..