It Begins Next Week!
The gold trend continues upward and soon it will pull the explorers with it.
All the money on the sidelines is waking up from a summer at the lake and looking for a place to go. With success stories like ATC making waves and very large players like Soros getting into gold for the “Ultimate Bubble” there can be little doubt there are many major success stories just aroind the corner. The last years have been building on properties of merit to culminate in a junior rally. The past seasons have been spent weeding out moose pasture and raising money to further the best properties available. The fruits of all that labour are about to bear.
We were in touch with Newstrike today and it looks like all the ducks are in a row for a big start to the season in September. They have enough money for a robust exploration season and are eager to get started.
top up positions soon for a nice run.
NES- Strong BUY
NES – top holding at calichebahada.com!
Caliche, thanks again for this great blog/forum. I started buying some NES last week to go along with my OLE. NES seems to be stuck in a range at about $.40 for a good while now. How long do you think it will take them to produce their first drill results? Also, it being your top holding, what type of ounce count and price range would you guess for he next 6-12 months?
Again thanks again
Tony
Hi Tony, Thank you for your support here i hope we all make a lot of money in the coming months
Yes NES is in an accumulation pattern at .40 they completed the placement and have enough for their drill program
that should change on tuesday when we get into high gear..
they already have 600,000 non compliant ounces from 11 holes drilled by goldcorp.. the deposit looks just like los filos of goldcorp..it is a low grade high tonnage deposit
i expect taht the deposit will hold about 2.5 million ounces but the signature carries on for several kilometers onto another of NES’s targets further north..
i would like to see about $4 on NES ..the lundins are major shareholders with just less than 40% of the float .. i dont think they get involved for a few pennies..
warmest regards
Caliche… again , rally super Blog. I have learned so much here abt the Gold Industry. When I sell OLE…. i’ll hit on some of your other Companies. And i think you are spot on about Ole. Also… i did some figuring of who owns OLE stock. Between MDL, IAG, Chet and mgmt… that comprises close to half of the stock ( 60 mil shares). Therefore, there arent many left to be selling. A little more volume to egt rid of the pure Traders who bought in at .75 and out at 1.50-…. a few more who need the money…. but that remains many of the long timers and the Smart share holders who are going to hang on. SOOOOOOO… that could provide for soem very tight trading, and very few shares for sale…. very interesting.
Hoosier…i love your Valueations !!! we thought you bailed. . Glad to ehar you….The Andean is a hard comparison b/c of all the Silver. Isnt that just a HUGE amount of Silver to help justify the $3.4 bn price tag ?/ i dont know….. But come 9/15… OlE will announc to the GOLD World that they officially have the 3.7 m oz… ( would be nice for Chet to surprise us for a change w/ more)…. but thats A LOT!! Then hopefully in Dec they announce 4.2 mil oz. Maybe the GOLD Gods will look favourably on us after all the tme spent here as patient and Loyal soldiers. and present us w/ a $2 bln b/o from MDL or Rangold… its a nice thought isnt it. Good labor day to all. !
Caliche, thanks again for your quick response. As far as the term “non compliant” for the 600k ounces. What exactly does that mean and can they someday become compliant?
Thanks
Tony
the ounces have been drilled but are deemed non compliant because they are not yet included in a 43-101 report
any ounces that are not included in a 43-101 are non compliant according to the guidelines even if they are reserves drilled before the rules were put in .. its supposed to protect the investor..
they will be compliant when a report is done for now they can only report widths and grade and not make any assumptions/predictions on the ounces
warmest regards
caliche
goldfather,
it is my hope that you and others will take up some of the picks here and continue to make money after the oromin saga has been put to bed
i expect the gold market to start pulling hard this week and continue for a couple of months, im starting to think oromin could be gone by christmas
GF
Silver is currently trading at less than $20/oz Gold is trading at greater than $1200/oz
So 24M oz of silver is less than 400k oz of gold in total valuation
I believe cash cost for silver is around $7 per oz – approx 30% of trading price – same % as gold’s. Not sure if IRR is same for silver as it is for gold given equivalent extraction rates, prod rates, etc.
h1
Hey Caliche…. boy ” Ole being gone by Christmas”…. what a beautiful thought !…. then I can start making money on other stocks here at bottom prices that i’m not in w/ Ole. By Christmas…. how cool is that !
Caliche – What makes you think OLE will be gone by XMAS?
Good Volume on Ole today. May touch 1.30 us……. They know a real good Update is next week. We may egt to 1.40 by friday…. then the update and we get to 1.50-…. then rise to $1.75….. then wilth more MDL IPO chatter/articles we go over $2….
Grandich Client Update – Oromin Explorations, In Play?
I’ve stated the same thing about OLE management ever since first meeting them several years ago – they drill for ore, not investors. This seem to bother a few shareholders who seem to spend too much time on chat rooms and sending emails, but was apparently appreciated by the industry itself since two significant players now each hold around 15% of OLE shares (To the best of my ability to check, it appears IMAGOLD own their shares still).
We’ve witnessed significantly increased daily volume and a nice move up ever since the recent MDL news. It appears the market is speculating that OLE is in play. I can tell you management is anticipating additional drill results and a new resource estimate in the next few weeks.
We’re a little overbought technically and there’s some significant resistance around $1.50. If I had my wish, we build a base just below there because if and when we break above $1.50, there’s no significant resistance to about $2.25 – $2.50
Stay Tuned (but avoid Internuts who have too much time on their hands).
Goldfather, Caliche, Andy, Maya, Arlene and company. What are your best guesstimates for the price of a buyout in the next 6 months or so considering that mdl says that they will be set in less than 12 months. Goldfather, I love your $2 bil dollars figure but I obviously think it is too high.
Thanks again to all!
Tony
Tony…. thats the Million dollar question….
no one knows. I just said $2 bn as a remark… Just happy now for the sp of 1.30 us… and going to 1.50 by the Update wed…. then maybe to 2 WITH the Update Info. imo…. Ole is saying they mioght have 8-10 mil gold oz….. with 3.7 as of Wed proved. And Looking like 4.2 at the Dec Update proven. Thats a lot of Gold, and worth a ton to a Major Gold Corp in a world of declining Gold reserves. What Price ??? its any ones guess.
Tony..Can’t really add much to Goldfather’s comments…It really is a big question mark……My guesstimations are $1.45-$1.75 within 30 days and well over $2.00 before year end…Buy-out should be over $4 and I am hoping for $5….
Oromin valuations:
$500 mil x .435 = $217.5/125 mil shares = $1.74 per share
$600 mil gives you $2.09
$700 mil gives you $2.44
$800 mil gives you $2.79
$900 mil gives you $3.13
$1 bil gives you $3.48
In order for Oromin to get a $4 to $5 offer like arlene and caliche have mentioned we will have to get a buyout of over $1 billion.
I know that in one of the last purchases in the industry over $1000 per ounce was paid. I truly do not understand that unless they have a lot more gold than reported. At $200 per ounce and 4 mil ounces that would make Oromin worth about $800 mil or $2.79 per share. This does not include any premium for the unreported or undiscoverd gold in the property. Any comments?
Thanks
Tony
Tony:
We all look at the $$ valuation as: the price per oz someone pays x the # oz found so far….
Another way to look at it – for me at least – how much money would I make, at present day value, if keep it & mine it myself…given their last IRR and recovery rate
At the prices given here – $400M-$800M – why sell it, they would make a hell of a lot more mining it.
I think this is backed up by some of the recent buyout prices around – $1000/resource oz. Also, if I am selling and I know I have a great piece of land that is expected to produce double what has been shown, and that it is strategically important – very much so – for the given region – I would expect a more premium price.
Majors need to add greatly to their dwindling resources and thus have been willing to pay the premium.
$500/oz is a low gross operating profit value of gold x 5Moz x new OLE % of .3919/ 131M sh = $7.47/sh
I dont think $500/oz is extreme given other buyouts and the strategic tangibles & intangibles of Sabodala.
Of course I could be wrong 🙂
h1
Hoosier…. yes THEY would make more money…. but what abt the share holders and 2-3 yrs of double Dilution? They’re Geologists…. not Marketers, not Producers.
GF:
Disagree… share price would follow profitaility of company… yes it would take a while & not sure I would wait… also dilution typically not a factor of plant production, most plants are not financed through PP’s, but through long-term credit financing (not that some diltution would eventual occur).
None the less… the point was Valuation,
keep the faith :)l
h1
H 1…
Just For discussion…. can you imagine what the sp would do after it took them 2 yrs to design/build a mine, and another yr to get it going?… 3 yrs. And the Dilution wouldnt be for the Mine. Would be to keep their doors open, to pay all the salaries, and the company jet, stock options, Grandich Promo, and all the perks etc etc. Thats 3 yrs of dilution at 2 per yr= 6 x 15 mil shares each= anoither 90 mil sahres +132= 222 mil shares.
If i was going to invest in a Gold Mine Producer…. i would invest in a Company that has a proven track record. Not a Rookie. Look waht happen to MDL.
Great point Goldfather!
Ole closes at 1.35 us // 1.39 ca. lots of buying last minutes. 172 thou us./ 196 thou ca.
maybe the UD today? or Monday
Congrats Caliche on 250k hits! There was a huge spike a week or two ago. I guess we are geting popular or it was not correct. In any case, I again love your site and thank you for this great blog/ meeting forum.
Thanks,
Tony
OROMIN IS LOOKING STRONG!!
Oromin in the News ! Top 100 Gold Companies/ Mentioned as next RedBack !
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/newmont-red-back-semafo-all-in-top-100-best-performing-gold-stocks-globally-47530/
thanks goldfather .. posted it on the site!
Thanks Tony!!
we have had a massive increase in hits of late.. i think people are starting to catch on to the gold idea!
and yes OLE looks Great!
Hey guys, any guess on when we will have the next resource report? According to management it was going to be at the end of August. I guess we can’t complain because the stock has been acting nicely but we must be getting close to some announcement.
Is Maya still around? I would like to get some input from her (or him), no offense.
Good luck to all and lets hope we breakout even more this comming week!
Thanks
Tony
Tony…
i heard its 9/15. this wed. just a rumor tho. With the sp run and volume… i was thinking theyd sneak it in last fri nite.
The drill update has been delayed. Chet is off to Turkey to have a meeting with OLE’s Arab partners. We will get the new drill results, which will remove the backlog and get us up-to-date, as soon as he returns. The delay may be be frustrating but the reason seems valid enough. MDL’s stealthy acquisition of 15% of the company was certainly a surprise to everyone, especially OLE management. The joint venture partnership doesn’t want to be caught on the wrong foot during the next few months, when 5 years of development should result in more than one take-over offer. The timing is perfect (high gold price, Goldcorp overpaying for Andean) , though hardly the result of prescience on the part of Chet and his brain trust.
Thanks Maya.
Tony
Thanks Maya… good info. How’d you hear ?
and i think the Delay is good for us. But need to be soon to keep credittability in the market. SP holding well, and building the base that PG mentioned. Then we have several chances w/ Events to Boost the SP and egt it past the $2 mark: 1) Our UD soon…2) MDL’s IPO details and specifics to investors…,, then the 3)Results of the IPO. Late Oct.( they’re Valuation will be a Huge benefit of Ole) 4) Any Grandich Story… 5) Ole’s 2nd UD Dec…. 6))Industry Story that Show Cases Ole…. 7))M & A story mentioning Ole 8) Any Ole announcement 9) B/O Rumors 10) B/O !!…. All this stuff could rocket the price
Goldfather—Price of spot gold could increase to $1350 , or even higher , between now and Dec….This ,too, should help the share price….Lots of possibilities if the Updates really are good…I still have not given up on FIVE million proven by end of year…..
arlene –
i agree, 5 million oz with a buyout at $500 an oz.
5million oz x 500 bucks x.43 / 100mil shares equals =)
Harry
Maya–Re your recent comment that “Goldcorp overpaid for Andean”” I think Goldcorp (and others) tend to believe what Jim Sinclair has often stated……”Gold Price will be $1650 by Jan 2011″……Others even say $2000 by end of Q-1 2011….Maybe that buy-out price will actually be close to the norm in the next 3-4 months…..Just food for thought…Would be nice for Ole (and us too)……..