Opportunity Cost
opportunity cost
Definition
The cost of passing up the next best choice when making a decision. For example, if an asset such as capital is used for one purpose, the opportunity cost is the value of the next best purpose the asset could have been used for. Opportunity cost analysis is an important part of a company’s decision-making processes, but is not treated as an actual cost in any financial statement.
I have been very busy making money on nearly all of my other investments and have been as yet unable to analyze the last results. The grades are excellent and the way the high grade deposits are clustered around Golouma there may be a lot more there .. The new trenching looks excellent and im sure there is a lot more to be discovered under the laterite cover surrounding the trenches.
that being said i have sold some of my position to re-deploy to stocks that are making me money. I will continue to hold Oromin for the buyout whenever that may occur. If things look like they are coming together i will again be a buyer with the profits im making on GRL TML MLA NES.h TCC TUO DEC REZ and RLM
Caliche:
I think we all understand the lost opportunity that our stake in Oromin has cost us. I am not sure about the other shareholders, but I would have never bought in if I knew OLE would be at $.85 in January 2010, let alone not be bought out by now. Hindsight is 20/20, but I never expected this…
G1
Caliche—-Are you saying that there are better opportunities today than Ole at $.85 ???What things might come together , in your mind , to cause you to be an Ole buyer again , instead of a seller???
Caliche —-When do you plan to analyze Ole’s last results???? Many of us here on your blog have been anxiously awaiting your comments…
Jus my feeling is that caliche has spent enough time on Oromin?Why flog a dead horse run by dead beats..I guess he has felt its time to spend more on other opportunities like GRL..TML..etc..I for one have held GRL..still own TML..just look at the person Marc Henderson..he is much younger then our mining man of the year and has done as much or more in mining?AQI..LAM and there were TWO others that escape me?Now don’t quote me or hold us to it but TML might surpass Oromin..just my gut feeling..Rremember we own shares and are hoping for a higher price?Do you own homework..Now here I am going to tout two others that I own..Levon Resources (LVN) & Valley High Ventures (VHV)..They are in Mexico working on a property that *could* not saying it will come to shine this year?Now here’s a flyer and remember we already have a very small position in Madison Minerals..another one of Chet’s (??) Do your own homework.Maybe if Chet reads this board he might even want to take a flyer on them?If you cannot get serious with OLE at least try and have a laugh in the meantime as the world turns?dsh
House Positions for OLE from 20100107 to 20100107
Ex House Bought $Value Ave Sold $Value Ave Net $Net
73 Cormark 69,000 58,650 0.85 0 69,000 -58,650
44 Jones Gable 120 102 0.85 0 120 -102
57 Interactive 0 120 102 0.85 -120 102
85 Scotia 0 5,000 4,250 0.85 -5,000 4,250
83 Research Cap 0 64,000 54,400 0.85 -64,000 54,400
Total 69,120 58,752 0.85 69,120 58,752 0.85 0 0…Wow a new buyer..dsh
Caliche—-Do you also (along with dsh) believe that Ole is a dead horse run by deadbeats???
hi arlene
i wouldnt go as far as to say dead .. possibly comatose..surely lame ..
ole’s performance has been anemic to say the least
im up over 30K this year on my other picks .. ole is still floating .82 to .88
it will have its day.. i just dont know when that will be .. or how much i will have left by then ..
they sure dont make it easy to pin point the drill holes .. most co’s put out maps with drill locations plotted on them .. oromin gives the grid coordinates but thats it .. makes it a lot harder..
im very busy with everything else going on right now ..
the results are great the grades are high and the locations of the deposits suggest there is a lot more gold to be discovered .. i cant make a guess as to how many ounces have been added other than to say i believe we will have between 4 to 5 million ounces when the update is done..
NES.H at .27
MLA at .12
GRL at 1.12
TML at .35
ALL better opportunities than ole at .85 .. they are ALL substantially higher while ole is still at .85
the base that is building at .85 is excellent and the upside is great but shareholder sentiment is in the toilet and that wont change till the stock price rises .. catch 22
i bought more MLA today at .245
I want to buy a ton of this as it hasn’t moved with the price of gold yet because the private placement held it back, however, that was a while ago so this stock has some catching up to do. Some promotion and more volume would definately help to lessen bid/ask gap and raise SP…..From Stockhouse…..caliche..no responce to the ton of buying?I am going to watch and see what a ton of buying looks like?I wonder if this is one of DS brain waves?If not I am sure he can find the stock for him?Or Chet can sell some to him at?dsh
It is my belief that the announcement of Ole’s imminent death has been greatly exaggerated…The pessimism on this board is overwhelming…What IF the optimization study proves out to be fantastic and/or updated prefeasibility shows over 5 million ounces (indicated plus inferred)and/or more NRs re higher grade assay reports like the last one over the next 2-4 months are released and/or price of gold hits $1300 in Q-2 ’10 and/or some of these and/or all of these???(I do not include “none of these”)… Call me crazy , but I still believe a b/o in the $5 range is possible within the next 6-9 months…I do not now have any plans to attend the alledged forthcoming funeral even if some say patient is comatose…GLASS IS HALF FULL NOT HALF EMPTY !!!
I think they are trying to say there are far better investments out there with the right DD. Cal being up $30k over 5 days goes to show what you are missing. OLE hasn’t been above a buck for more than a day since July 27th. Gold goes from 950 to 1200 to 1150 since then. The charts don’t lie, we have been deadbeat for some time now. The new year brings on new opportunities. It’s up to you to step out of your comfort zone and re-think your approach. The intentions of this blog are to share DD and investments to MAKE MONEY. OLE is not making money. All of the sudden, they won’t start releasing news every other week or every month. It’s not the way they work, we know that now. Q2 is long away to sit waiting.
Cal, thanks for sharing Mala Noche. So much potential there I’m glad I got in at .17. Have a great weekend!
cs—No , I do not expect a NR every other week and / or every month….Ole has never done that…….BUT I do expect one within the next 60 days which is still in Q-1…Ole typically releases one every 2-3 months……..Because of the Xmas break in Dec , I expect this next one to be closer to three months and not two months…I also believe Ole share price could show a 5 to 6 fold increase within 6-9 months which isn’t all that bad a return when compared to where we are right now…….I understand your frustration when looking at history , but although history should be given some weight , the most important factor is what you believe will happen in the short to medium term future…(3-9 months)…I have given you my thoughts on that and if I am correct ,Ole is a great buy at .85 and is far from dead…The pessimism on this board for the near term future is really not warranted……People are too hung up because of past performance which admitedly STUNK…..
Interesting to hear the back-and-forth here. The bottom line is simple: We go nowhere until OROMIN decides to encourage a takeout and that’s not happening. Anyone that has spoken to DS knows that he has referenced people “taking a run at us” and Oromin does not want a takeout until they feel every last ounce has been unearthed. Let me translate – Dilution for sure, another 18 months…FOR SURE. Oromin management has dug in for the long run. That being said, perhaps one day this company can fetch $4-$5 bucks. CALICHE, our good friend has articulated for everyone OPPORTUNITY COST and you would all be wise to move your speculative investment dollars into other gold stocks or BIOTECH. GLTA
AB
ab—–You seem to be one of very few that beliieves what david scott says
Arlene, a significant raise in share price would warrant a dramatic news release. Therefore, anything within 2 months is not imminent. LAYMAN TERMS: as Andy is saying, you’re going to get the same deal in 2 months if not better than you are today…..a dilution will happen, there is not enough cash on hand for funding to bring us to Q2. We’ll reevaluate right before the UPDATED Fees is released at the end of Q2, so more than likely September. Best case scenario, share price will rise to $1.25 for the next dilution. For an increase of 47% to take place, there needs to be a major news release. Have we experienced a raise that high in the last year? Maybe, but oil speculation was involved. ???????? You’re guess is as good as mine. I would love for this to get back to 2006-2007 levels, but we don’t have the momentum we use to have.
All I’m doing is lessening my number of shares in OLE. Taking that money and re-investing it in places that have major upside potential. Spec-plays:yes. Better than OLE: maybe. Would you say making $30k over 5 days is better than where the OLE investor is the last 5 days? Hell, the last 6 months. Cal can clearly answer that. Smart investors don’t become attached to their investments so much they become complacent with the week to week upside of an investment that hasn’t moved for 6 months. We need updated drill results every few weeks. Not once a quarter. We need new investors wanting a piece of the pie. Most importantly, we need liquidity to keep operations running without putting the management in a place for the need to raise capital. This is an undervalued play, but there are too many risks involved to turn around quickly. I’m long on OLE, by long I mean next November to Feb. They’ll be plenty of chances to take profits from other investments and re-invest in Oromin at 100% from 50% vested.
cs—Thx for taking the time and effort to try to help me better understand…I do appreciate it…
Arlene —
Perhaps I’m one of the few that actually listens to exactly what DS says. If you listen closely to him, and anyone else at Oromin during a conference call or otherwise, they all have one voice. They always reference the POISON PILL, they always reference someone “taking a run at us”. To me, when I put things together it seems logical that Oromin now believes that there is massive amounts of gold on their property. Clearly they want the opportunity to unearth all of it, uninterrupted by shareholder pressure or from another company buying Oromin out. They obviously down play the value of the company and sure, it does frustrate shareholders who want to exit with a tidy profit. I expect more of the same from Oromin in the near future as they do not want the kind of attention paid to the company that shareholders want……..they want 18 more months to establisk 10M ounces and a hopeful buyout at much higher pricing.
Andy:
You don’t sound like much of a shareholder and everyone knows that if you kiss DS’s ass he will tell you whatever you want to hear. Also, the “POISON PILL” or another company taking a run at the company, has never been discussed on any public conference call.
That being said, if Oromin’s plan is to prove ounces for another 18 months like you claim, why wouldn’t they want to promote their company as much as possible to get the share price up as if they are going to drill for another 18 months they will need a significant amount of capital to raise. If the stock is trading higher and the potential of the property is known, the terms of any PP will be better. It should really matter about Oromin being concerned about some company trying to buy them before they prove the ounces they want as the Poison Pill is in place and no company would want to deal with the problems it would cause.
It sounds as though you thought through your thoery, but it just doesn’t make much sense, similar to Oromin management…
G1
G1—
I like your thoughts, and with the exception of your insinuation that I kiss the *** of DS you make sense. However, using your logic we should have a far greater share price. And there is the rub……the company refuses to bring notoriety to this project because they don’t want the added attention, fearing an attempted takeover or takeover offer which would go to a shareholder vote, essentially putting management out of the equation in determining the sale of the company. Management wants to stay in control and they can do so by diminishing the caliber and content of public information. They are having ZERO trouble with the Ten and Twenty million dollar cash raising and each time they raise $$$ it buys them 5-9 months more drilling. How do explain these 3 points: 1. Very reluctant press releases with limited comprehensible information 2. Share price and the nearly deliberate effort to keep the share price down 3. Continual cash raising
If you can explain why we are in this situation, having this many ounces in the ground with gold at $1150 ounce and come up with a better theory on what is going on I’d sure like to hear it. Until then I assume Oromin will be buying time to prove 10M ounces…..as quietly as possible. I still believe we have 18 months until the end and a full 6-9 months before any meaningful increase in share price. Over the next 6 months I suggest BIOTECH.
AB
………and one more thing G1, how many shares do I need to own to be considered “a shareholder” in your book? Interesting comment.
AB
“How do explain these 3 points: 1. Very reluctant press releases with limited comprehensible information 2. Share price and the nearly deliberate effort to keep the share price down 3. Continual cash raising ”
Andy, the explanation is easy. The POISON PILL. It puts management in total control. I wish Oromin made it public, but they have already been approached to get bought out and consolidate the entire Senegal area including MDL and a number of other deposits in the area. Oromin met with the Saudi’s and the Saudi’s decided they wanted more and to prove more ounces. As you know, the Saudi’s own a large percentage of OJVG, the only problem is that as Oromin keeps trying to raise money and dillute the stock price, the Saudi’s percentage always stays the same, they have nothing to lose but a al little time and an investment as small as OJVG is not something they worry too much about.
Therefore, the answer to your questions above all has to do with the fact that if Oromin is approached by a suitor and the price isn’t right for Oromin or the Saudi’s, they scare off the suitor by saying they will utilize the poison pill to block any acquisition. While I understand it is important to get the right price, I feel the share price would be higher if the offer that they received a few months ago became public, as it would show that the majors see value in Oromin. In response to your concern about a shareholder vote, management control a significant percentage of oromin stock and it would be there call anyways, our shares whether you own 10 or a million would be worthless in a vote.
By withholding material information, such as IAG had to sign a standstill agreement which expires Jan. 19th, 2010 in order to buy their stake and the recent bid to consolidate the area, Oromin hurts the average retail investor, the guy that bought the stock thinking that management would look out for their best interests as a shareholder. If I was the average retail investor and had to sell off my stock and then found out the company was not disclosing very important information, I would be pretty upset. Oromin is a public company and have certain responsibilities to their shareholders, regardless of who they are or how much stock they own. At the end of the day, management will make sure they get enough warrants and options to offset any dilution, it is the little guys that get hurt and I don’t feel that is the way a PUBLIC company should be run, as we are ALL owners…
G1
Hi Andy..
could you recommend any biotech stocks i dont know much about the field and would like to do some DD and learn a thing or two..
good discussion here…thanks to all….
so lets say we do need another 18 months…how much cash is required?
is $50 million enough? so fully diluted shares would be close to 200 million by then?
and 10 million ounces? what would the share price for that be?
I guess the lesson here is “don’t fall in love” with a stock…would have been nice to sell, realize a tax loss, wait a month (or more) and buyback in….might still have a chance to do that, but I wonder if the IAMgold Jan 19 deadline will have any effect.
Probably not with my liuck….
anyways thanks to caliche for his other picks, GRL and MLA….
Caliche —-
Regarding BIOTECH, my favorite speculative is BNVI. They are involved in women’s health and are utilizing natural products to fight common illness, plenty of potential. I also really like ANX, AEN and I also believe DNDN has plenty of room to run. GLTA
AB
The pessimism on this board is overwhelming…arlene…look at the price of the stock..and we should feel good…a bird in the hand is worth TWO in the bush?This is only a question but can money be made by companies doing work on Oromins project?So if I ran a mining company and knew we would be spending a great amount of money on a project..I would think about owning my our equipment?I and others feel that Oromin might have been better off if they owned the equipment working on this project ..that way the money would not be going out the back door?But you would think a mining man of the year and the brains in the office might have seen this opportunity?In the mean time I will try and play with others my picks are (CRG..LVN..SKE..SRI..TML..VHV) while this mess gets sorted out…But remember we own shares in these companies ..so do your own homework.
dsh—I agree , that from the prospective of current share price compared to what I paid , I do not feel very good………BUT , from the prospective of the potential things coming in the next few months (which I have previously explained) that should impact the share price positively , I do not believe such overwhelming pessimism that I presently see is warranted…I , for one , anticipate making money on this stock yet this year…I know that you hope that I am correct , but we both know nothing is guaranteed…
Arlene:
We have been talking about the “Potential” of this stock for years. It seems as though the definition for Oromins “Potential” continues to go down as time goes on. In the past, people were calling for $100. if the oil hit, then 25, then 15, now it is 2-3, maybe 5 if we are lucky…
G1
Can someone tell me if they will drill another hole for oil? They have not made another comment since the first hole was dry. Everyone seems to assume that they are done.
Did I miss an announcement?
Can someone tell me if they will drill another hole for oil?…To be truthful?Does anyone really care?I hope they don’t spend another nicket on the oil..its a poke in the dark?Spend the money what they have on the gold?…………….Now for those who around for the run to $4.00…If the dimwits in the office say they might were the ones that made it move?Well it mjght have been them partially..but it was us reatali guys who held for the green pasture because what was expelling from the phone calls by the dimwits..But we should have read between the lines when you saw that some of the insiders and emploees of Oromin never held a share and to this date show up on insider reports as holding any..But I don’t blame them..its the higher management that continues who continues to call the shots..I have been around this game for a ong time and have never seen one person make so many mistakes and continues to this date..Let Nell take over and save the company..please.dsh
Sorry for my post mistakes..to much of a hurry to proof read..got to carry on with what may make us some money..dsh
Sorry you didn’t like the question DSH. Just because I don’t post all the time doesn’t mean that I haven’t been on this for a long time. I think that much of what this company puts out is pure BS. It is BS to comment on a dry hole and then to never comment again. How do we know they won’t piss more money down the hole unless they tell us. That is why I asked the question. They owe all of their investors more then that. HYPE and BS from Naples and other places.
They owe all of their investors more then that. HYPE and BS from Naples and other places….Sorry I might have miss understood you..I agree with you that we need an explanation..It about NINE LONG YEARS to drill…Talk about?You can go on for ever about this brain dead group?dsh
We are on the same page…I just want to hold them responsible, even it is only on this forum. It is amazing to me how many crooks walk free in this world. For every Bernie Madoff that gets caught, another thousand wait in line to take his place. Peace to you.
From what I understand, they won’t drill anymore at Santa Rosa unless they can find a partner to bear the costs. I don’t think you should ever expect anything from Santa Rosa. It was a waste of time and money…
Another stellar day for OLE while gold closes above $1,150…
CIBC Asset Management owns 6,656,249 shares of Oromin as of 12/31/09. Blacrock Advisors owns 1,850,000 shares as of 9/30/09. Together they own obout 8% of the company considering 112mil shares outstanding. They apparently also see the potential appreciation of these shares. Hopefully the next round of results will add the final pieces to this puzzle and adequately value the company versus its competitors. I know it is very frustrating but I am still willing to give management the benefit of the doubt. They know what they have and after all these years of drilling they will not be pressured into a hasty deal.
Comments are welcome. GLTA,
Tony
Thanks Tony… good findings. BTW I think chet owns 12 mil shares alone. And w/ all the mgmt, they are still the majority stock holders. Any idea who this 8% is? Are they a Investment Broker type? Investing for clients or their own account? any idea how they feel abt oromoin? should we contact them for soem insight?
You mention the next round of results… what are they? And why/how do you think it’ll impact anything here. Nothing else has ! The Pre Feas ? the accumulation #’s of what they have just announded in Laymans terms? I thinmk all are assuming that the last results were another 1 mil oz…. making a total of 4 mil. , and in another couple months it’ll be 5 mil oz. Please tell me how this GD stock sits at 80 cents w/ Gold at near a historical $1150….. and they have potentially 5-7 mil oz…. who’s the Canadien SEC?
BTW….. called IAG and they said they were shocked and dissappointed thet Conway left. Was his own call. On a hi note. Too bad. I always felt they were our only creditable note here. Only legitimate claim. Worried they pull out,,,, as they see whats going on. Hope i’m wrong and they make a good Bid that mgmt cant screw up.
Thanks Tony. This would mean that CIBC Asset Management owns about 6.3%;. Blackrock Advisers owns 1.7%; Chet owns about 11% and IMG owns about 17%, for a total of 36%. This is pretty significant. I’d like to thing that Chet has to answer to IAG on a frequent basis.
Also, since this board seems to be a primary avenue for ORE individual investors, I have to think that Calich’s statement that he has sold some shares has led to some of the selling. However, everyone should do their own DD. Nothing has really changed (except the level of frustration, of course). A good report will set this stock off and running.
Tony, where are you getting the amount of ownership shares from?
Sorry about the typos, it’s OLE, of course!
Roro, go to Morningstar.com, check olepf, go to ownership, then go to major holders. It will show you the major mutual fund holders and the major institutional holders. Hope that helps.
Regarding Bradleys theory mentioned this week end…. about the fearless M***** Man….
that they dug in and wont even try to cultivate a b/o till he’s good and ready…..
to further that, keeping the price way down at 70 and 80 cents by not reporting and burying all the good news. Reporting reluctantly and to the minimim. NR’s let out Friday nites, and odd times like 2 days before christmas etc etc over the last 4-5 yrs. Needing money, and they can sell a PP all day long at 80 cents. But not at a legitimate price , they cant sell the PP as easy. THey cant sell the PP at that price. Keep the sp down at 80 cents and keep raising dough until he gets his gold oz where he wants,,, then start reporting accordingly. Wahla…. the sp goes up to the 3 and 4 bucks ( 2 yrs from now ) and all at diluted share prices of 150 to 200 mil shares. Mgmt doesnt care , they bought at free prices or 10 cents. They may also have in at the other 57% private. May work ok for some, and may be barely legal… but what abt all of us in for 4 and 5 yrs, witha hard earned money. If all by the book , then OK. But I am very skeptical. When we see another PP in May at 80 cents… , and Gold is at $1600-we’ll know sofmething really smells. ( sure hope i’m wrong, and still alive to see it)
BTW,,,, if Iag bails we’re sunk.
Congrats on crossing 150,000 hits Caliche!
Tony
Thanks Tony!
and thank you all for visiting the blog!
i hope to have it up and running for many years to come..i hope to make it a place we can all share investing ideas and tips well past the oromin buyout 🙂
If Chet in fact owns 12 mil shares, I believe that bodes well for us shareholders. He has a lot at stake here. Like I have stated before, he knows what they have and every ounce they can prove will mean a substantial amount of more $ for him and his management team. Patience and belief in the decisions management will make this year are what will give us all a happy ending.
By the way, are there any links that show Chet and other insiders holdings?
Thanks
Tony
918,106 dollars spent and not a friggin thing to show for it!
Somehow the company has convinced the Exchange to allow it to pay Chets income tax! Fuck!!! 232,000 dollars FUCK
Chet gives away some shares to grease some palms somewhere and we pay the tax… criminal .. it is criminal.. selling the rest of my shares tomorrow.. assholes FUCK
Sorry i ever laid eyes on this piece of shit company and its lying cheating stealing management
I will bet you a doughnut Chet is taking money out the backdoor somehow, he probably owns the drilling company or the assayers.
RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
2009 2008
Professional and consulting fees 287,840 147,068
Salaries and benefits 398,070 86,100
Accrual for indemnification 232,196 –
Professional and consulting fees and salaries and benefits have been expensed to operations, capitalized to
resource properties or recorded as share issue costs, based on the nature of the expenditure.
Included in accounts payable and accrued liabilities at November 30, 2009 is $324,688 (February 28, 2009 –
$114,938) due to directors and companies with common directors. This amount includes $232,196 (February
28, 2009 – $nil) in respect of an indemnification to a senior officer and director for certain income tax costs
payable by him in 2010 in respect of placing free trading shares and acquiring private placement shares in
substitution. The related cost has been charged to share capital as a share issue cost.
These transactions are measured at the exchange amount, which is the amount of consideration established
and agreed to by the related parties.
stockdude:
do you have a link for that info?
G1
I found it in the latest financial report. Note 10 to the financial statements. It is also mentioned in the management discussion
The thing that worries me now is that if we prove up 4 million ounces someone will be able to just buy us outright shareholder rights plan and all!
If the share price is 60 cents and the valuation is say 3 dollars someone will put a bid in at 1 dollar and buy ALL the shares including the rights shares and walk leaving us in the poor house..
This is a CLUSTERFUCK of massive proportions
chet and the boys really fleeced all of us idiots, i bet he is taking money out the backdoor, why else would he not give a shit about the price of the shares
still selling oromin good news or not