If you want to make money in gold, look at companies in the Guerrero Gold Belt!

 

Newstrike Capital NES.v 2.21

Oroco Resources OCO.v .26

Torex Gold TXG.to 2.07

 

 

With the latest worldwide round of QE many investors are looking for a place to make money going forward.  The best place to do that is to buy shares in gold companies.  One of the best countries to buy gold companies in is Mexico, and one of the best places in Mexico to find gold is Guerrero.

 

Mexico has a long history of commercial Gold and Silver mining that dates back over 500 years.  The main mining provinces in Mexico are Sonora, Coahuila, Zacatecas, Chihuahua, Durango and Guanajuato. We can now add Guerrero as a significant new mining province with over 16 million ounces of gold discovered to date.

 

The modern-day history of the Guerrero area commenced when gold was discovered at Xochipala in 1924 by the Franco Urias Family, who operated a small family-owned mill and mine until 1988, producing a reported total of 360,000 ounces of gold (Au).

 

The ‘Guerrero Gold Belt” or GGB, as the area is now known, extends for at least 55 km from southeast to northwest and remains open to exploration in all directions.

 

Regionally, several multi-million ounce gold deposits all related to large intrusions have been identified. These include Newstrike’s Ana Paula deposit (possible 3 million ounce plus), the El Limon and Los Guajes deposits of Torex  (4.8 million ounce), Goldcorp’s Los Filos-El Bermejal mine (~11 million ounce), which is currently the largest producing mine in Mexico, forecast to produce 345,000 ounces of gold in 2012.

 

There are few investments that can generate profits as quickly as a gold exploration company that has just discovered a new deposit. The typical life cycle of a gold stock generates profits in several phases from initial speculation through to implementation of development and eventually production.

 

Typically a stock will trend upward after news of drilling is announced.  If a discovery is made, the stock can generate 10 to 20 times your initial investment!  As drilling continues the initial excitement can subside with the share price giving back some of its gains.  In time, as the project is de-risked through more drilling and engineering studies, the share price will again increase as speculation gives way to investment.  Further gains can be made when a senior producer acquires an exploration company.

 

Ironically the place where gold was first discovered in Guerrero is the least explored using modern techniques.  Oroco Resources OCO.v .26 has recently announced registration of the Xochipala project with the PRM (Mexican mining authority).

 

The Xochipala Property, which is surrounded by concessions owned by Goldcorp, lies approximately 4 kilometers southeast of Goldcorp’s Los Filos Mine.

The Oroco property contains the southern-most intrusion in the Guerrero Gold Belt.  Historical workings have exposed highly oxidized mineralized zones. These were then sampled by Oroco geologists in a preliminary evaluation of the claims soon after the property was acquired.  Mapping and assay results indicate that gold mineralization exists at Xochipala along the contact zone between intrusive and sedimentary rocks.

 

Oroco represents the initial phase of speculation and thus, the opportunity for the greatest share appreciation.  The exciting thing is that it displays the common trait of a GGB deposit, a contact zone with an intrusive and also has a very good address, being the closest to a producing mine.  Of course the best place to look for a deposit is next to a mine!

 

 

According to recent reports 24 holes have indeed been drilled at Xochipala.  The interesting thing is that is was not done by Oroco.

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty091212.html

 

 

Newstrike Capital NES.v 2.21 is next along the development curve with a very high grade discovery already made at Ana Paula.  AP is significantly de-risked and engineering studies are underway.  The share price has already retraced from its highs and is now again moving up as speculation is replaced with investment.

 

The NES management and technical staff are familiar with the area, having over 8 million GGB ounces attributed to them through years of exploration success with various companies.  They have all come together in Newstrike, a GGB powerhouse.

 

Since acquiring the project from Goldcorp only 2 years ago, they are well on their way to proving up an estimated 3 million ounce deposit in their maiden resource calculation.  As of Friday they were drilling hole 125 at Ana Paula, I have never seen a better return on investment of meters drilled.  As a reference, Torex  TXG.to 2.07 has drilled approximately 1500 holes.  Torex is about 12 to 18 months ahead of Newstrike on the development curve.  They have reported 4.8 million ounces and a feasibility study on their Morelos project.

 

The GGB represents a unique opportunity as it offers several great companies at different stages of exploration and development.  The great thing is that the projects can be easily compared since geopolitical differences cancel out, leaving only relative project valuations.

 

 

A relative valuation can be made between NES and TXG.   Given the drill data and geometries available on the NES website, we can estimate roughly 3 million ounces are contained in the high grade Breccia and surrounding envelope.  We can compare this to the reported 4.8 million ounces of Torex.  The market cap of TXG today is $888 million, compare this to the NES market cap of only $263 million.

 

Using Friday’s close of $2.07 for TXG, Newstrike should be trading at $7.44, given equivalent ounce counts.  Clearly we can see quite a large divergence here.  When we take into consideration the ratio of ounces of each company 3 million for NES and 4.8 for TXG we get a ratio of .63, which implies an ounce corrected value of NES at $4.65.   The current closing price of NES is $2.22.  There is a 100% + upside potential from here just to get to fair value, not to mention any buyout premium.

 

The Guerrero Gold Belt is unique as it represents an area of predictable gold mineralization over a large area.  Several world-class deposits have been discovered and it is all within sight of the largest producing mine in Mexico!  The full spectrum of gold exploration is present in the GGB from pre-discovery (OCO) to delineation (NES) to feasibility and pre-construction (TXG), all the way to full scale production (G).  The only thing separating these companies is time.  The GGB has a proven exploration model and multiple discoveries.  The best place to make money going forward is gold and the best place to find gold is the GGB!

 

 

Disclosure:

 

I have a large position in Newstrike Capital

 

I have initiated a buy program on Oroco Resources and have a starter position.

 

I have owned Torex and swapped all of it for Newstrike, given the large relative undervaluation given to NES.

 

I have no position in Goldcorp.

 

Companies featured in this article

 

http://www.newstrikecapital.com/

 

http://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/

 

http://www.torexgold.com/s/Home.asp

 

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September 16th, 2012
Categories: Uncategorized . Author: caliche